报告时间：2025年11月25日（周二）下午16:00-17:30

报告地点：国交2号楼315会议室

报告人简介: 何岱海，香港理工大学应用数学系教授，博士生导师。西安交通大学工学博士和加拿大麦克马斯特(McMaster)大学数学博士，并且曾在北京师范大学物理系、美国密西根大学(Univ of Michigan)生态学系、以色列特拉维夫大学(Tel Aviv)动物学系做博士后研究。主要研究兴趣是传染病建模和数据统计分析，在PRL, PNAS, Sci Adv, Ann Intern Med, Eur Respir J, J R Soc Interface等权威期刊发表论文140余篇，研究成果受到国内外媒体的广泛报道。关于非洲安哥拉黄热病的建模获2018年国际疾病监测学会的科学贡献最佳论文第二名；先后获得香港研究资助局项目、香港食品与卫生环境署健康与医疗项目、阿里巴巴合作研究基金等多项基金资助。Google H-index 48. 2022以来连续多年入选斯坦福大学发布的全球2%顶尖科学家榜单，以及ScholarGPS 2024全球前0.05%学者。

摘要：The global resurgence of chikungunya virus in 2025, with outbreaks reported in the Indian Ocean, Africa, and the Americas, has raised new public health concern. Brazil remains one of the most heavily affected countries, with more than 180,000 reported cases. This study investigates the epidemic dynamics of CHIKV in comparison with dengue virus (DENV), focusing on Brazil from 2017 to 2025. Using national surveillance data, we analyze spatiotemporal heterogeneity, demographic distributions, and infection attack rates for both arboviruses. We find that chikungunya exhibits greater regional heterogeneity and lower temporal synchrony than dengue, likely due to differences in basic reproduction number (R0) and population immunity. Age-specific case burdens are highest among working-age adults, while infants and the elderly experience greater severity. To reconstruct long-term epidemic trajectories at the regional level, we develop a modified SEIR5S compartmental model.